At its October meeting, the OECD Consensus member countries decided on a new classification of the three countries. El Salvador and Mauritania improved by one level, while Senegal dropped by one level in the country risk ranking. El Salvador was helped by continued economic expansion, Mauritania by strong economic growth and fiscal consolidation, Senegal was hurt by the revelation of hidden debt and understated deficits. Thus, for export credit agencies such as Eximbank, El Salvador and Mauritania represent a lower level of risk and Senegal a higher level of risk as of October 10, 2025.
“Developments in country risk ratings confirm that trust and transparency remain key pillars of stability. The examples of El Salvador and Mauritania show that reforms, fiscal discipline and cooperation with international institutions are delivering tangible results and improving the risk profile. On the other hand, the case of Senegal highlights the importance of open and sustainable public financial management. Countries that are able to strengthen investor confidence and transparency are better positioned for stable growth even in a challenging global environment,” said Pavol Tavač, Deputy CEO of Eximbanka.
El Salvador (upgrade from category 7 to category 6)
El Salvador is currently on a positive trajectory compared to previous years. The economy has continued to expand, supported mainly by remittances from the U.S., increased confidence, favorable terms of trade, and reduced imbalances.The main reason for this is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, which provides financing and shows a degree of political commitment by the country and discipline in fiscal policy.Similarly, rating agencies have responded by raising their ratings, reflecting lower credit stress, increased investor confidence, and external support. The already dollarized economy adopted Bitcoin as a payment currency in 2021, attracting some international attention and investment. Close ties with the U.S. through trade, investment, and large infrastructure projects improve logistical connectivity as well as the perception of greater security, boosting overall confidence and tourism. The fiscal law and strategy signal a structural shift in public financial management, but the path to fiscal consolidation remains challenging. The high debt and the country’s still large financing needs are still viewed negatively. The dollarised economy, while helping to stabilise inflation and exchange rate volatility, on the other hand represents a reduction in the flexibility of the monetary economy. El Salvador’s geographical location exposes it to climate change and natural disasters, and its still weak human capital indicators are also negatively assessed.
Mauritania (upgrade from category 7 to category 6)
Mauritania’s economic growth has been driven by foreign investment in the mining (mainly iron ore, gold and gas) and oil sectors, as well as international financial assistance. Mauritania has also made significant progress in the energy sector: the construction of the BirAllah gas field is expected to increase the country’s gas export potential. The country is continuing fiscal consolidation, falling inflation and reform of social protection systems. It has also made progress in governance and transparency, with stronger institutions. Improved fiscal discipline has led to a year-on-year decline in the deficit, mainly due to better tax mobilisation. The May 2025 agreement with the IMF to review Mauritania’s programme under the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility is positively assessed. According to recent IMF assessments, Mauritania’s debt burden risk has been reduced from high to medium. The country’s external position is improving and becoming more stable, with better coverage of external reserves. The upgrading was also supported by several international financing agreements to support clean energy, water, employment, and infrastructure. Mauritania received a large pledge, worth about US$2 billion, from the Arab Coordination Group (ACG) to support the country’s next 5-year development plan. Despite the country’s economic growth (reaching over 5% in 2024), the economy remains vulnerable to climate shocks, commodity price fluctuations, and potential delays in major projects.
Senegal (downgraded from category 6 to category 7)
Senegal’s rating was downgraded again this year, given the increased country risk associated with the review that started in October 2024 and is based on the finding of much higher-than-expected public debt. The country’s deficits have been significantly understated by up to 7% of GDP per annum, raising the debt ratio to around 100% of GDP by end-2023, compared to the published 74%. These are mainly hidden debts that have been contracted with local banks and international financial institutions. An upcoming IMF programme totalling USD 1.8 billion, the financing of which is considered crucial for Senegal and serves as an anchor for further investment and financing, has been suspended in light of this. The new IMF programme is conditional on improving budget transparency, consolidating debt data, strengthening public financial management and taking into account hidden liabilities. Economic growth, driven by stable inflation, rising private investment and growth in the hydrocarbons sector, is viewed positively, with Senegal expected to become the fastest growing economy in West Africa in 2025, with GDP growth of more than 8%.
Visit our website.
Keep up to date with export and foreign trade information on our Linkedin profile.
About Eximbanka
As the only direct instrument of the state for export promotion, the Eximbanka is an important part of the chain responsible for promoting the country’s economic policy in the field of external economic relations. It offers a wide range of export-related financial products, especially credit insurance, financing and guarantees. As a state export credit agency, it enables Slovak exporters to enter into trade and investment relations where the commercial financial sector is less interested in taking on risk and therefore performs a complementary function.
Media contact Martina Vráblik Solčányiová
EXIMBANKA SR
Tel: +421 903 542 072