Tatiana Gecova, Eximbanka’s risk analyst, in a commentary for TREND.sk, evaluated the updates of the OECD classification in relation to the riskiness of individual countries.
The October meeting of OECD Consensus member countries updated the risk classification of three countries. El Salvador and Mauritania improved by one category, while Senegal fell by one level. The changes, which take effect from 10 October 2025, reflect changes in macroeconomic stability, fiscal discipline and transparency in public finances, and will affect the setting of credit and insurance conditions for export credit agencies such as Eximbank.
The improvement of El Salvador and Mauritania highlights the importance of responsible public financial management, cooperation with international institutions and fiscal discipline. Conversely, Senegal’s deterioration highlights the risks associated with a lack of transparency and hidden liabilities, which can undermine investor confidence and limit access to foreign financing.
El Salvador is on a positive economic trajectory, supported by rising remittances from the US, higher investor confidence, favourable terms of trade and a reduction in macroeconomic imbalances. A key factor has been the continuation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, which has provided financing while signalling a commitment to fiscal discipline. Credit rating agencies responded with improved ratings, reflecting lower credit stress and increased investor confidence. The dollarised economy and the adoption of Bitcoin as a payment currency have attracted foreign investment, but at the same time reduced monetary policy flexibility. El Salvador remains exposed to the impacts of climate change and natural disasters and still has weak human capital indicators, which pose long-term risks.
Mauritania has experienced strong economic growth, driven by investment in the mining and energy sectors as well as international financial support. Progress has also been made in fiscal consolidation, reforming social systems and strengthening institutions, which has reduced the risk of debt burden from high to medium. The agreement with the IMF confirmed the country’s ability to meet its fiscal commitments and boosted investor confidence. External stability has also been strengthened by significant international financial commitments, including a pledge of USD 2 billion to the Arab Coordination Group. Despite economic growth exceeding 5% in 2024, the country remains vulnerable to climate shocks, commodity price fluctuations, and delays in major projects.
Senegal faces heightened risks after revelations that hidden public debt was significantly higher than expected and the country’s deficits were understated by up to 7% of GDP per year. The debt ratio thus rose to around 100% of GDP, leading to the suspension of a planned IMF programme of USD 1.8 billion. Nevertheless, economic fundamentals remain strong – inflation is stable, private investment is growing and the hydrocarbons sector can guarantee that Senegal will be the fastest growing economy in West Africa in 2025, with GDP growth projected to be over 8%.
In the short term, however, there remains a need to improve transparency, consolidate debt and strengthen public financial management.
The update of the OECD classification confirms that transparency, trust and fiscal discipline are the foundations of a stable economic environment.
El Salvador and Mauritania show that systematic reforms and cooperation with international partners yield concrete results and improve the risk profile of countries. In contrast, the case of Senegal highlights that opaque public financial management can quickly undermine investor confidence and increase the cost of financing. It thus remains crucial for exporters and financial institutions to monitor not only economic growth, but above all the degree of transparency and credibility that determine whether a country can withstand global risks and sustain development.
Source: TREND.sk