At its June meeting, the OECD Consensus member countries decided on a new classification of the three countries. Mongolia improved by one level, while Bangladesh and Senegal dropped by one level in the country risk ranking. Mongolia was helped by sustained fiscal consolidation, Bangladesh by political uncertainty and Senegal by increased country riskiness. Thus, for export credit agencies, Mongolia represents a lower risk level and Bangladesh and Senegal a higher risk level as of 27 June 2025.
“The update of the OECD Consensus country classification reflects the dynamics of global economic and political developments. Trading in emerging markets brings growth potential but also an increased level of uncertainty. The risk profile of individual countries is regularly reassessed, which influences exporters’ decision-making when entering foreign markets. We can offer Slovak exporters solutions that can mitigate risks and create space for the development of their business relationships even in more challenging regions,” said Pavol Tavač, Deputy CEO of Eximbanka.
Mongolia (upgrade from category 7 to category 6)
Mongolia is a country that has one of the lowest population densities in the world and is also characterised by a high level of economic dependence on China and Russia. The increase in the country’s rating is closely linked to sustained fiscal consolidation leading to lower budget deficits, better debt management through improved revenue mobilisation and prudent debt management. Mongolia’s capacity to withstand external shocks has also been strengthened. The country has higher foreign exchange reserves, lower debt and more manageable external debt maturities. Mongolia has also made progress in diversifying its economy, in particular through the strong development of sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, renewable energy and services, which can provide more stable growth in the long term. Mongolia’s economy is supported by significant mineral wealth (e.g. copper, coal, gold) and an improving regulatory framework, as well as a young and growing population. Political stability and the effective implementation of structural reforms agreed with international partners and the IMF are also positive.
Bangladesh (downgraded from category 5 to category 6)
Bangladesh’s rating has been downgraded in the context of uncertainties related to the political situation, which remains tense. Political uncertainty ahead of the planned 2026 elections may delay reforms and affect key sectors and remittances. Regionally, Bangladesh continues to face challenges stemming from the ongoing conflict in Myanmar. The deteriorating political situation is creating economic pressures: high inflation, a stagnant currency and tightening monetary policy. Bangladesh’s long-term fiscal weakness is low budget revenues, as well as potential contingent liabilities of the banking sector, SOE debt and higher borrowing costs. The moderate level of public debt and the availability of official external financing, as well as the successful implementation of the fiscal reforms that are part of the IMF programme commitments, are positive developments.
Senegal (downgraded from category 5 to category 6)
Senegal’s rating has been downgraded due to the increased country risk associated with the review, which started in October 2024 and is based on the finding of much higher-than-expected public debt. The country’s deficits have been significantly understated by up to seven percentage points of GDP per year, raising the debt ratio to around 100% of GDP at end-2023, compared to the published 74%. These are mainly hidden debts that have been contracted with local banks and international financial institutions. An upcoming IMF programme totalling USD 1.8 billion, the financing of which is considered crucial for Senegal and serves as an anchor for further investment and financing, has been suspended in view of this. Economic growth, driven by stable inflation, rising private investment and growth in the hydrocarbons sector, is viewed positively, with Senegal expected to become the fastest growing economy in West Africa in 2025, with GDP growth of more than 8%.
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About Eximbanka
As the only direct instrument of the state for export promotion, the Eximbanka is an important part of the chain responsible for promoting the country’s economic policy in the field of external economic relations. It offers a wide range of export-related financial products, especially credit insurance, financing and guarantees. As a state export credit agency, it enables Slovak exporters to enter into trade and investment relations where the commercial financial sector is less interested in taking on risk and therefore performs a complementary function.
Media contact Martina Vráblik Solčányiová
EXIMBANKA SR
Tel: +421 903 542 072