{"id":42487,"date":"2026-11-09T08:10:46","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T07:10:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/?p=42487"},"modified":"2026-11-09T08:10:51","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T07:10:51","slug":"the-oecd-has-revised-its-risk-assessments-for-three-countries-guyana-and-guinea-have-improved-while-cameroon-has-declined","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/the-oecd-has-revised-its-risk-assessments-for-three-countries-guyana-and-guinea-have-improved-while-cameroon-has-declined\/","title":{"rendered":"The OECD has revised its risk assessments for three countries: Guyana and Guinea have improved, while Cameroon has declined"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

At the October meeting of the Country Risk Expert Group (CREG), which focused on assessing countries in the Americas and Central and West Africa, the member countries of the OECD Consensus decided to upgrade the risk classifications of Guyana and Guinea and downgrade Cameroon\u2019s rating.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Guyana and Guinea saw an improvement in their risk profiles, primarily due to dynamic economic growth, rising revenues from the extractive sector, and more favorable macroeconomic developments. In the case of Cameroon, however, the downgrade reflected persistent political instability, weakening public finances, and increased debt risks. Changes in ratings are an important factor for export credit agencies when assessing the risks of trade and investment transactions.<\/p>\n\n

“Recent changes in risk classifications show that the economies of individual countries can develop in significantly different directions. Guyana and Guinea are leveraging their mineral wealth to support economic growth and large-scale investments, while Cameroon faces a combination of political and economic challenges that are undermining its financial stability. For export credit agencies such as Eximbanka, it is therefore important not only to monitor the growth potential of individual markets but also to thoroughly assess the risks associated with specific trade transactions,\u201d<\/em>said Pavol Tava\u010d<\/a>, Deputy CEO of Eximbanka.<\/p>\n\n

Guyana \u2013 Dynamic Economic Growth Driven by the Oil Sector<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Guyana is among the world\u2019s fastest-growing economies, with its economic expansion driven primarily by extensive oil reserves and rising revenues from oil production. Favorable economic developments in 2025 and 2026, rising foreign exchange earnings, and a relatively low level of public debt contributed to an improvement in the country\u2019s risk classification from Category 5 to Category 4.<\/p>\n\n

Continued growth in oil production during the first half of 2026 contributed to an improved outlook for both export revenues and state budget revenues. According to current forecasts, Guyana\u2019s real GDP is expected to grow by approximately 22.3% in 2026.<\/p>\n\n

The positive economic trend is also supported by the accumulation of financial reserves. The value of the Natural Resource Fund reached approximately $4.3 billion by the end of June 2026, representing roughly 16% of the country\u2019s GDP. At the same time, economic growth is being driven by the expansion of private-sector lending, the relative stability of the financial system, and ongoing public investment in infrastructure\u2014particularly in the development of the road network, housing, energy, and education.<\/p>\n\n

Despite the favorable economic outlook, Guyana remains exposed to several risks. Among the most significant are the economy\u2019s heavy dependence on the oil sector and fluctuations in export commodity prices, inflationary pressures, limited institutional capacity, and challenges associated with implementing large-scale public investments. Climate change, particularly alternating periods of flooding and drought, is also a significant risk factor.<\/p>\n\n

Guinea \u2013 An Improved Economic Outlook Supported by Investments and Reforms<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Extensive investments in the mining industry and transportation infrastructure, along with ongoing economic reforms, are creating more favorable conditions for Guinea\u2019s economic development. Strengthened macroeconomic stability, more favorable growth prospects, a slowdown in inflation, and an improved credit rating outlook have resulted in the country\u2019s reclassification from risk category 7 to risk category 6.<\/p>\n\n

The Simandou project, which focuses on exploiting the country\u2019s vast reserves of high-quality iron ore and building the associated rail and port infrastructure, is a major driver of economic development. The project is part of a broader development strategy aimed at transforming the country\u2019s mineral wealth into long-term economic growth and supporting the industrialization and diversification of the economy by 2040. These investments are expected to contribute to increased export and budget revenues and strengthen the country\u2019s ability to service its external debt.<\/p>\n\n

This positive economic trend is also confirmed by year-over-year economic growth of 7%, driven primarily by the mining industry, services, and agriculture. At the same time, inflation has moderated to 3.2%, which has a positive impact on household purchasing power and macroeconomic stability.<\/p>\n\n

Cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under a program aimed at strengthening public finances and macroeconomic stability is also contributing to the improved economic outlook. Its priorities include increasing budget revenues, rebuilding financial reserves, improving fiscal management, and enhancing transparency.<\/p>\n\n

Despite positive developments, Guinea remains exposed to significant political and economic risks. Political stability, even after constitutional changes, continues to be affected by restrictions on political parties, tensions between the government and the opposition, a weak institutional environment, and limited political pluralism. From an economic perspective, a key vulnerability is the country\u2019s high dependence on the mining sector, which accounts for more than 90% of its exports, thereby increasing its sensitivity to fluctuations in commodity prices and global demand. An additional risk is the growing strain on public finances due to large-scale investments, which limit the country\u2019s fiscal flexibility.<\/p>\n\n

Cameroon \u2013 Political Uncertainty and Economic Risks Have Worsened the Country\u2019s Rating<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Ongoing political instability, a deteriorating security situation, institutional weaknesses, and high levels of corruption continue to undermine Cameroon\u2019s economic outlook. Uncertainty surrounding political succession and security threats are negatively affecting the investment climate and increasing pressure on public spending. Combined with a deteriorating fiscal situation and rising debt risks, these factors have led to the country\u2019s downgrade from risk category 6 to 7.<\/p>\n\n

Cameroon has a relatively diversified economic structure, in which services account for the largest share of GDP, while agriculture plays a significant role in employment and exports. Industry also relies on oil and natural gas extraction, while the manufacturing sector remains relatively underdeveloped. The performance of the oil sector is being undermined by a lack of new investment and the gradual depletion of existing reserves, which is putting pressure on export and budget revenues, as well as on the availability of foreign exchange. Real GDP in the oil sector fell by approximately 7.2% in 2025, which negatively affected the country\u2019s overall economic performance.<\/p>\n\n

Unfavorable fiscal developments and a high risk of debt distress also contribute to the deterioration of the risk assessment. In its debt sustainability analysis, the International Monetary Fund highlights, in particular, the rising cost of debt service and the limited diversification of export revenues. At the same time, the fiscal situation is complicated by lower revenues from the oil sector and ongoing expenditures related to fuel subsidies.<\/p>\n\n

Liquidity risk also remains elevated, stemming from the limited availability of foreign exchange resources and the country\u2019s ability to meet its foreign financial obligations on time. Furthermore, the downgrade of Cameroon\u2019s external credit rating has contributed to the overall deterioration of its credit profile.<\/p>\n\n

Country Risk Classification<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n

The OECD\u2019s country risk classification serves as one of the bases for determining the minimum premium for officially supported export credits. Countries are classified into seven risk categories, with a higher category representing a higher level of risk. The assessment takes into account economic, financial, and institutional factors, as well as a country\u2019s track record of debt repayment. Changes in classification can therefore affect the terms of insurance coverage for export transactions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At the October meeting of the Country Risk Expert Group (CREG), which focused on assessing countries in the Americas and Central and West Africa, the member countries of the OECD Consensus decided to upgrade the risk classifications of Guyana and Guinea and downgrade Cameroon\u2019s rating.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":30655,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[171,170],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-press-release"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42487"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42491,"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42487\/revisions\/42491"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eximbanka.sk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}